Hello all you lovely PTB readers out there!
One of the great things about baseball is just how humbling the game truly is.
A superstar can go hitless on Monday, and then collect five hits in five at-bats on Tuesday. A scrub can get the game-winning hit in the bottom of the ninth to send every fan home happy. Even a surefire Hall of Famer can botch even the simplest of plays.
Of course, this applies to the peanut gallery too.
Every year, fans and media alike make preseason predictions, and, in our excitement that the Greatest of Games is back after its long winter’s nap, we rush to gobble up every prediction we can, over-analyzing this offseason trade, or that free-agent signing, to our heart’s’ content.
And then some.
But, just as baseball is a humbling game, so is predicting what will happen. Sure, we have so much data and the sabermetric movement takes a lot of the guesswork out of day-to-day games. If that’s your bag, fine. If not, that’s okay too.
So, in lieu of writing about the upcoming All-Star Game (my thoughts on that are here, by the way), I thought it would be a better exercise to look back at the March predictions made by the Sports Evolution staffers: Myself, Scott, Dr. G., and of course, Cowboy Senior.
If you like, you can listen to our incoherent, wonderful preview of the season here. You know, for posterity.
In this exercise, I’ll simply run down each pick for the six divisions, the four wild card teams, the league MVPs, and Cy Youngs. Post-season picks are omitted at present, but we will revisit those another time, perhaps.
With that out of the way, let’s take a look!
All stats and standings as of this weekend (July 9-10, 2016).
National League West
CURRENT LEADER: San Francisco Giants
Record: 57-33, 6.5 games in front of 2nd place Los Angeles Dodgers
SE PREDICTIONS:
Cowboy Senior: Giants
Scott: Giants
Dr. G: Giants
Joel: Giants
— Whether we all saw more talent on the Giants’ roster, believed in the Johnny Cueto signing, or just simply bought into the even-year mojo, the Sports Evolution Crew is unanimously correct in our choice with the current NL West leader.
National League Central
CURRENT LEADER: Chicago Cubs
Record: 53-35, 7.0 games in front of 2nd place St. Louis Cardinals; 7.5 ahead of Pittsburgh Pirates
SE PREDICTIONS:
Cowboy Senior: Chicago Cubs
Scott: Chicago Cubs
Dr. G: Chicago Cubs
Joel: Chicago Cubs
— We all drank the Wrigley Kool-Aid here, and the Cubbies’ scorching-hot 17-5 April and 18-10 May have set the Cubbies up for an October dance. Recent struggles aside, this pick looks about as rock-solid as the SE Crew will get.
National League East
CURRENT LEADER: Washington Nationals
Record: 54-36, 6.0 games ahead of 2nd place New York Mets and Miami Marlins
SE PREDICTIONS:
Cowboy Senior: New York Mets
Scott: New York Mets
Dr. G: New York Mets
Joel: New York Mets
— Everyone bit into the Big Apple here, not surprising given the Mets’ litany of aces, and Washington’s decidedly-mediocre 2015 showing. The Nats padded their lead with a 3-1 series win over the Mets this weekend, while the Marlins are hanging around, too.
National League Wild Cards
CURRENT LEADERS: Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Miami Marlins
Records: Dodgers 51-40; Mets 47-41; Marlins 47-41; 1.0 game ahead of St. Louis Cardinals; 1.5 games ahead of Pittsburgh Pirates
SE PREDICTIONS:
Cowboy Senior: Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals
Scott: St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates
Dr. G: Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals
Joel: Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals
— Both of Cowboy Senior’s choices are looking good here, while the Pirates went 8-2 heading into the break, putting them just 1.5 out. Meanwhile, the Nats are in the driver’s seat in the East, so all these SE picks are solid.
American League West
CURRENT LEADER: Texas Rangers
Record: 54-36, 5.5 games ahead of Houston Astros
SE PREDICTIONS:
Cowboy Senior: Houston Astros
Scott: Texas Rangers
Dr. G: Houston Astros
Joel: Texas Rangers
— The two Lone Star teams are currently 1-2 in the West, although Texas has a still-respectable edge over the Astros. With all of the Rangers’ injuries, though, this race could get a lot closer before things are finished.
American League Central
CURRENT LEADER: Cleveland Indians
Record: 52-36, 6.5 games ahead of Detroit Tigers; 7.0 games ahead of Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals
SE PREDICTIONS:
Cowboy Senior: Kansas City Royals
Scott: Kansas City Royals
Dr. G: Kansas City Royals
Joel: Detroit Tigers
— Despite a good mainstream push for Cleveland by many preseason pundits, the SE went in a different direction here, either relying on 2016 momentum by the defending champs, or a little homerism by yours truly. Either way, we missed the boat; although who saw Cleveland winning 14 in a row?
American League East
CURRENT LEADER: Baltimore Orioles
Record: 51-36, 2.0 games ahead of Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays
SE PREDICTIONS:
Cowboy Senior: Toronto Blue Jays
Scott: Toronto Blue Jays
Dr. G: New York Yankees
Joel: Toronto Blue Jays
— None of the SE gang saw this one coming, despite the flip-a-coin preseason outlook many had for the division. With the “Sawx” and the Jays both just two out, and the trade deadline on the horizon, anything can happen though. Stay tuned.
American League Wild Cards
CURRENT LEADERS: Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox
Records: Blue Jays: 51-40; Red Sox 49-38, 2.0 games ahead of Houston; 4.0 games ahead of Detroit Tigers
SE PREDICTIONS:
Cowboy Senior: Indians, Red Sox
Scott: Astros, Indians
Dr. G: Rangers, Blue Jays
Joel: Astros, Royals
— A much tighter bunching in the American League, as eight teams are within four games of wild card spots, compared to three teams within that same margin in the National League.
Overall, we’ve all got dogs in this hunt, though. Cleveland (Senior, Scott) are division leaders, as are the Rangers (Dr. G). The Astros have climbed back into things after a terrible first month, while the Royals are 4.5 games back of a spot.
Since the major awards are tougher to nail down among a wider field than 5-team divisions, the top candidates for each award will be presented here. The candidates will represented the league’s best based on Fangraphs’ WAR (fWAR), Baseball Reference’s WAR (bWAR), and traditional league leader boards, with league-best stats in bold. The lists for NL MVP, NL Cy, and MVP are ordered by fWAR, while the AL Cy as well, although there are gaps where other non-contenders do slot (for instance, Justin Verlander and David Price would make that list strictly on fWAR, but not on any other metrics).
National League MVP
CURRENT LEADERS (TOP 8)
- Clayton Kershaw (5.5 fWAR) (5.1 bWAR) 11-2, 1.79 ERA, 145 K, 0.727 WHIP
- Kris Bryant (4.5 fWAR) (4.4 bWAR) .280/.379/.575, 72 runs, 25 HR, 64 RBI
- Noah Syndergaard (4.0 fWAR) (3.9 bWAR) 9-4, 2.56 ERA, 128 K in 105 ⅔ IP
- Jose Fernandez (4.0 fWAR) (2.8 bWAR) 11-4, 2.52 ERA, 154 K in 107 ⅓ IP
- Corey Seager (3.8 fWAR) (3.2 bWAR) .298/.358/.524, 17 HR, 22 2B
- Daniel Murphy (3.7 fWAR) (3.0 bWAR) .349/.388/.593, 197 total bases
- Johnny Cueto (3.7 fWAR) (3.5 bWAR) 13-1, 2.47 ERA, 115 K in 131 ⅓ IP
- Brandon Crawford (3.6 fWAR) (3.6 bWAR) .278/.351/.441, 9 HR, 58 RBI
SE PREDICTIONS:
Cowboy Senior: Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
Scott: Kris Bryant, Cubs
Dr. G: Bryce Harper, Nationals
Joel: Bryce Harper, Nationals
— Scott’s pick of Bryant looks of the best of the SE picks here, although Rizzo leads the NL in OPS (.991) and OPS+ (162) with 21 doubles, 21 homers and a solid .290/.410/.581 line. Harper, meanwhile, leads the league in walks with 69 and is at a solid .259/.401/.497 line with 19 homers. This race is still very much up in the air, and the pitchers listed above — save Kershaw — probably will get nixed on MVP voting, but will all tangle for the NL Cy Young.
American League MVP
CURRENT LEADERS (TOP 8)
- Mike Trout (5.4 fWAR) (5.7 bWAR) .323/.427/.567, 18 HR, 15 SB
- Josh Donaldson (5.2 fWAR) (5.4 bWAR) 196 total bases, 79 runs, 61 walks, 22 HR
- Jose Altuve (4.2 fWAR) (4.7 bWAR) .343, 23 SB, 119 hits, 14 HR, 51 RBIs
- Ian Desmond (4.1 fWAR) (3.7 bWAR) 21 doubles, 15 HR, 15 SB, 132 OPS+
- Manny Machado (4.1 fWAR) (4.4 bWAR) .322/.380/.577, 29 doubles, 19 HR
- Xander Bogaerts (4.0 fWAR) (3.3 bWAR) .331/.392/.479, 10 HR, 65 runs
- Robinson Cano (3.6 fWAR) (4.4 bWAR) 197 total bases, 20 HR, .916 OPS
- Francisco Lindor (3.6 fWAR) (3.7 bWAR) .303/.360/.456, 10 HR, 19 doubles, 13 SB
SE PREDICTIONS:
Cowboy Senior: Carlos Correa, Astros
Scott: Mike Trout, Angels
Dr. G: Mike Trout, Angels
Joel: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
— Scott and The Doctor took the safest route on this pick, and it looks pretty good, although surely the Angels’ poor performance will cost him some votes. Regardless of that, there are plenty of amazing candidates up and down the American League. Correa, for the record, is putting up a solid sophomore year, slashing .261/.356/.463 with 14 HR, 55 RBIs, 2.9 bWAR, and 2.3 fWAR. Joey Bats, currently on the DL, is at a mediocre .230/.360/.455 with just 12 homers, a 0.6 bWAR and a 0.8 bWAR. So much for playing for a payday.
National League Cy Young
CURRENT LEADERS (TOP 8)
- Clayton Kershaw (5.5 fWAR) (5.1 bWAR) 11-2, 1.79 ERA, 145 K, 0.727 WHIP
- Noah Syndergaard (4.0 fWAR) (3.9 bWAR) 9-4, 2.56 ERA, 128 K in 105 ⅔ IP
- Jose Fernandez (4.0 fWAR) (2.8 bWAR) 11-4, 2.52 ERA, 154 K in 107 ⅓ IP
- Johnny Cueto (3.7 fWAR) (3.5 bWAR) 13-1, 2.47 ERA, 115 K in 131 ⅓ IP
- Jake Arrieta (2.9 fWAR) (2.7 bWAR) 12-4, 2.68 ERA, 121 K in 114 ⅓ IP
- Stephen Strasburg (2.8 fWAR) (3.7 bWAR) 12-0, 2.62 ERA, 11.1 K/9
- Madison Bumgarner (2.7 fWAR) (3.5 bWAR) 9-4, 2.09 ERA, 192 ERA+
- Max Scherzer (2.6 fWAR) (3.6 bWAR) 10-6, 3.03 ERA, 164 K in 127 ⅔ IP
SE PREDICTIONS:
Cowboy Senior: Jake Arrieta, Cubs
Scott: Jacob deGrom, Mets
Dr. G: Noah Syndergaard, Mets
Joel: Max Scherzer, Nationals
— It’s understandable none of the SE picks went to Cueto after his so-so run with the Royals; ditto for Fernandez with his injury history. But how did we all whiff on Kershaw? (See what I did there?) None of our picks look bad (Check out the AL Cy picks for that!), and any one of them could still emerge as the award-winner, including deGrom (5-4, 2.61 ERA, 8-8 K/9).
American League Cy Young
CURRENT LEADERS (TOP 8)
- Corey Kluber (3.3 fWAR) (2.5 bWAR) 9-8, 3.61 ERA, 122 K, 2.96 FIP
- Chris Sale (2.6 fWAR) (2.6 bWAR) 14-3, 3.38 ERA, 125 IP, 123 K, 1.040 WHIP
- Rich Hill (2.5 fWAR) (3.0 bWAR) 9-3, 2.25 ERA, 1.092 WHIP, 10.7 K/9
- Danny Salazar (2.4 fWAR) (3.8 bWAR) 10-3, 2.75 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 171 ERA+
- Michael Fulmer (3.4 bWAR) 9-2, 2.11 ERA, 200 ERA+, 8.5 K/9
- Steven Wright (3.0 bWAR) 10-5, 2.68 ERA, 169 ERA+
- Carlos Carrasco (3.0 bWAR) 5-2, 2.47 ERA, 68 K in 69 ⅓ IP
- Cole Hamels (2.6 bWAR) 9-2, 3.21 ERA, 109 K in 112 IP
SE PREDICTIONS:
Cowboy Senior: Chris Sale, White Sox
Scott: Sonny Gray, A’s
Dr. G: Dallas Keuchel, Astros
Joel: Chris Archer, Rays
— All of these picks, with the exception of Sale, look pretty bad. Archer has failed to build on his impressive 2015, as he leads the leads the AL with 12 losses to go with a 4.66 ERA and 18 HR allowed. On the bright side, Archer is tied with David Price for the top spot with 130 strikeouts.
Last year’s Cy winner, Keuchel, is getting beaten up as well, tossing 113 innings with a 5.02 ERA. Gray, on the other hand, at least has the excuse of being injured, as he spent a few weeks on the DL. Still, his overall totals of 3-8, 5.16 ERA and just 7.1 K/9 aren’t doing Scott’s pick any favors.
Sale, leading the league in wins, was a stronger bet when the Sox were riding high, but he’s got company now, making this a fascinating race to watch in the second half.
And with that dose of hindsight, I hope everyone out there enjoys the All-Star game in all its overblown ridiculous while remembering that predictions are just that, and baseball is a crazy, crazy mistress.
But, as a certain misanthropic WWE champ once said, “I sorta dig crazy chicks.”
