#11- Denver Nuggets- James Young, SG/SF Kentucky
With Gary Harris going tenth in the draft, who better to follow him on the board than his college doppelganger of sorts in Young? Young played only one year at Kentucky while Harris played two, but it did not take long for Young to get people’s attention. Most casual fans know him for this ferocious dunk he threw down in the national title game, but that disguises his best attribute as a knock-down three-point shooter. His percentages were not as good as you’d think because he does not stop and pop like Harris does, but Young is deadly on the catch and shoot.
Young also proved through his tournament run with Kentucky that, alongside his teammate and lottery mate Julius Randle, he is not afraid of the spotlight. He might get some second guesses from G.M.’s because at 6’7″ he is a bit of a tweener between guard and forward, but Young is an underrated defender and cannot be abandoned when he goes on the attack. The Nuggets had a pretty bad,injury-plagued year under first-year head coach Brian Shaw, and a lot of that had to do with a second injury to SF Danilo Gallinari. Young would be a ripe replacement in Denver, where he will get more than a few opportunities to knock down three’s. At his worst, James Young is a better version of C.J. Miles, so you are getting a good player here.
#12- Orlando Magic- Dario Saric, PF Croatia
I predicted that the Magic would go with immediate help at the guard spot with Dante Exum. So with this second lottery pick that Orlando earned from the now-infamous 2012 four-team trade that sent Dwight Howard to the Lakers, I expect John Hennigan to go with a project in the front court. Hennigan went to the Under-19 World Championships in Prague and loved Exum’s game, but that was not the only one he saw there. The most intriguing prospect leading into that tournament was a power forward from Croatia named Dario Saric. Saric’s name has been in draft circles for years, but it hit a fever pitch last year when he made himself eligible as a 19-year-old, then surprisingly withdrew his name at the last minute. Had he stayed in the 2013 draft, I could have seen him easily go in the top five or ten, so he didn’t hurt his stock that badly.
Unlike many foreign prospects who get limited playing time in secondary leagues as youngsters, Saric was the best of the best in his area and proved it on the court. Going back to Europe, he was the regular season MVP, Finals MVP, and FIBA Young European Player of the Year in the Adriatic League. He is seen as the best Croatian to come into the league since Toni Kukoc. Saric is taller than Kukoc at 6’10” but has excellent basketball IQ. He has been getting a lot of comparisons to Boris Diaw, who just helped the Spurs win an NBA title as a do-it-all big man. Saric might stay another year in Europe, but he will still be in his early 20’s when he comes to the NBA, and he would be a great fit in Orlando where they need a big man who doesn’t swallow the ball or play just one role. Saric does have to work on his shooting, though, because if he becomes a stretch four, 30 percent shooting from three ain’t gonna cut it. He has also gotten great marks for being the best athlete in his league, but can he do the same thing in the NBA with his lack of speed? I say the Magic take the chance with one of their two lottery picks.
#13- Minnesota Timberwolves- Zach LaVine, PG/SG UCLA
This is the first of three UCLA Bruins that I believe will get picked in this draft, two of them in the first round. If I had told you in March that the first Bruin taken would be Zach LaVine, the team’s 6’6″ freshman guard, you would have probably rolled your eyes at me. In his first year as UCLA head coach, Steve Alford used LaVine perfectly as a energetic two-guard who would sometimes come off the bench and explode out of the gate. In the early part of the season, LaVine shined with some spectacular dunks and tremendous play making abilities that reminded them of Jrue Holiday, another UCLA one-and-done guard.
LaVine eventually hit a wall later in the season and was pretty quiet in the postseason, too. But in the combine where many lottery picks took it easy, LaVine came to Chicago ready to play and his athletic measurements were off the charts for even a guard (41.5″ max vertical, 4.7 % body fat, 6’8″ wingspan). The NBA is still a guard-driven league, and a player like LaVine who continues to grow in height and can play both point guard and shooting guard is a rare gem, which is what makes his limited numbers at UCLA sort of inconsequential. LaVine has been working out against Marcus Smart and Elfrid Payton over the last month, and while I don’t see LaVine’s stock passing up Smart’s, the race between him, Payton, and Tyler Ennis to be the next PG picked has become quite interesting.
LaVine has burgeoning talent at the guard spot, but which team actually takes him and waits for him to emerge is the big question. The Minnesota Timberwolves clearly have the potential trading of Kevin Love on their minds, so no one knows what the team’s needs will be depending on if Love gets moved and what they get in return. I think that the Wolves need an athletic guard that can create his own shot and move between positions to help out a traditional point man like Ricky Rubio and traditional shooter in Kevin Martin. The problem for Minnesota is that you have to wait on LaVine for quite a while, and I don’t know if team president/head coach Flip Saunders has that much time left. I could see this pick getting moved, too, depending on what happens with any potential deals for Love.
#14- Phoenix Suns- Nik Stauskas, SG Michigan
Like UCLA starting with LaVine, I have three Michigan Wolverines getting drafted, and in this case, all three in the first round. The first one of John Beilein’s players picked was the Big Ten Player of the Year in Nik Stauskas. Stauskas was a heralded recruit out of Canada with Lithuanian descent when he came to Michigan in a freshman class that included Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary. Along with NBA All-Rookie first teamers Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr., Stauskas was a starter on one of the youngest teams to ever make the national title game in 2013 thanks to his dead-eye shooting and ability to over match smaller guards at 6’6″. Stauskas got everyone’s attention as a diaper dandy when he went 6 for 6 from three-point land to sink Florida in the Elite Eight. He got even better as the team’s leader as a sophomore by improving his mid range game and showing his hops with some sweet dunks.
He is highly competitive and is not scared of taking or making a tough shot. What became obvious in the combine, though, is that with his measurements he will never be able to play small forward because of his defensive weaknesses. While Noah Vonleh fits the NBA better because his college coach limited his role, Stauskas is the inverse: A player who was allowed by his college coach to do a lot but has to play only one role in the NBA. But if that role is shooting, he has perfect form to utilize that, and the Suns love to run and shoot under Jeff Hornacek. The Suns were a lot better than I though this year, and Stauskas will be enabled under their fast tempo and quick shooting style. He will be tops in three-point field goal percentage ala Kyle Korver someday. He is also an excellent ball handler, something that a team heavy on assists like Phoenix covets.
#15- Atlanta Hawks- Adreian Payne, PF/C Michigan State
A member of the Michigan Wolverines being picked in the draft is followed by their fiercest rival in the Michigan State Spartans. Tom Izzo’s teams always tend to do well, but this Sparty squad that got to the Elite Eight was the most talented one he has had in over a decade. Gary Harris is a lottery pick while Branden Dawson has the potential to be a first-rounder next year. The senior leaders on that team were Keith Appling and Adreian Payne. The 6’10” Payne was a pain for a lot of Big Ten teams that he played against, because he was one of those rare talented big men that developed a knack for outside shooting as a senior. Payne is not purely a center, although he can get away with playing the 5 because he has the makings of a typical big.
But what sets Payne apart is how incredibly well he has fused his inside game with his outside shot, which he did not have a lick of when he came out of high school. He shot 50% from the field and 40% from three in his senior year to go with his stout defense and ability to handle contact underneath. His friendship with the late Lacey Holsworth, a young girl stricken with cancer, was heartwarming and showed his tremendous fighting spirit as the team’s leader. And if you think his slouchy frame means he can’t jump, watch this and you’ll be proven wrong. As much as the Phoenix Suns love to shoot three’s in the previous spots, the Atlanta Hawks straight up set records for the most three-point attempts under Mike Budenholzer in the playoffs where they almost eliminated the Indiana Pacers. Pero Antic broke out against the Pacers, but he is not a bruiser like Payne is, plus Payne can add to the Hawks’ shooting arsenal. I think it’s a win-win.
#16- Chicago Bulls- Rodney Hood, SF Duke
The Chicago Bulls got his pick thanks to a trade back in 2010 with the then-Bobcats involving Tyrus Thomas. All the talk in Chi-town lately has not been about the draft or even about Derrick Rose coming back from a second knee operation. It all revolves around the strong chance that the Bulls are going to make a big play to go after Carmelo Anthony if he opts out of his contract with the Knicks and makes himself a free agent. If the Bulls do convince ‘Melo to go to Chicago and join Rose and Joakim Noah, the possibility is there that either this pick or the 19th pick (or even both) will get moved as part of a sign-and-trade involving the Knicks, who have no draft picks this year. For now, that is all speculation, so we have to treat this as if the Bulls will keep both picks.
The one thing that the Bulls desperately, absolutely need in the offseason to improve their roster is outside shooting, specifically at the forward position. I am not sure if Rodney Hood can play small forward in the NBA, but his 6’8″ height and long arms make you think that there is a chance. Hood only played one season at Duke, but he is more battle tested that you think. He played his freshman season at Mississippi State, and I thought he gave Kentucky’s Anthony Davis as hard of a time as any other forward did back in 2012. His defense is okay, but his primary talent is on the offensive end, specifically his left-handed shooting touch. Hood can score in different ways, but shooting is a dying need for the Bulls, and I would take the chance on Hood at this point. He can do some things at the forward spot that Mike Dunleavy simply cannot do. But then again, ‘Melo happens, too.
#17- Boston Celtics- Elfrid Payton, PG Louisiana-Lafayette
Payton’s climb in this draft has been quite the story given that he played at a Sun Belt Conference school in Cajun country. A local product out of Gretna, Louisiana-Lafayette head coach Bob Marlin recruited him and Payton had solid numbers as a sophomore point guard. But he didn’t catch national attention until last summer when Marlin called Billy Donovan and vouched for Payton to get a try out for the Under-19 U.S. team. Not only did Payton make the team, but he and Marcus Smart spearheaded a defense that recorded more than 13 steals per game.
Scouts were in love with Payton, and his improvement showed in his junior year as he averaged 19 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, and over 2 steals. His performance in the finals of the Sun Belt Tournament against Georgia State was one of the best I have seen this year, a star player refusing to lose and carrying his team to victory in the biggest game of the season. NBA coaches love point guards who fight for every last morsel on the table, and Payton is one of those guys. Brad Stevens had a point guard like that at Butler in Shelvin Mack, and Payton might be just as effective in the pros eventually replacing Rajon Rondo. Payton is similar in some ways because he is an excellent defender and loves to create but doesn’t shoot the ball well. Rondo is a good mentor for Payton in many ways if he doesn’t get traded before training camp.
#18- Phoenix Suns- Kyle Anderson- SF UCLA
This the second of the Suns’ three first-round draft picks, this one from the Washington Wizards in a trade involving Marcin Gortat right before the seasons began. While the Suns will never win a contest as the most talented team in the league, they are one of the toughest offenses to stop because of the fact that they can play Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe, two undersized but multi-skilled combo guards, at the same time without a hitch. Passing is a beneficial trait for them, and Kyle Anderson was one of the better ones in that category. Now, don’t take Anderson for a guard despite the assist and steal numbers. Anderson is a 6’9″ power forward who can slide into small forward depending on the match up.
His nickname is “Slo Mo” because while most high school All-Americans come out of the gate like a ball of fire, Anderson patiently waits for the play to develop and makes plays at a slower tempo. Some would think that means that a slow player like Anderson would be bad for a fast team like the Suns, but I think Anderson can thrive in an offense where his decision making speeds up and his court vision improves, especially given his physical advantages potentially as a small forward. I liked him a little more than Zach LaVine and Jordan Adams at UCLA, but as far as pro potential, just like in college, Anderson needs to wait his turn and find his calling before jumping in headfirst. The last thing the Suns need right now is another scorer, anyway.
#19- Chicago Bulls- Jerami Grant, SF Syracuse
This is the Bulls’ second pick in the first round, and who knows if they will even keep it depending on their limited cap space as they look to sign another star player to go there. I think Syracuse is going to get two of their players picked in the first round of the NBA draft, and I have them going back-to-back here. The first one is Jerami Grant, a well-built forward whose dad is former NBA power forward Harvey Grant. He was used primarily as a power forward in the back end of Jim Boeheim’s vaunted 2-3 zone defense and he was fed the ball inside as a 4 while C.J. Fair played the 3 spot.
What makes Grant interesting is that he and his representation are committed to promoting him as a small forward at 6’8″, which would make him a really attractive piece. I still have sincere doubts that he can actually play small forward because of his below average shooting, tendency to stay in the paint, and awkward release. Some of that might be the 2-3 zone to blame, so if Grant gets more freedom to show his outstanding length at SF, he could be in the league for a long time. I still think he can be effective as an undersized power forward. But if he wants to be a 3, he has to prove that he can shoot from the outside before he even remotely becomes a threat. Imagine a better, more athletic version of James Johnson, and you get Jerami Grant.
#20- Toronto Raptors- Tyler Ennis, PG Syracuse
It was very hard for me to determine who was going to go first between LaVine, Payton, and Ennis because although they are three very different guards, they all have incredible upside in their own ways. Ennis really got on the map when Syracuse got all the way to late February undefeated before the team ran out of gas and lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to Dayton. But for a while, there was a stretch where the Freshman Watch was Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, Gordon, and Tyler Ennis. Ennis is a throwback point guard with nifty ball skills, a steady and unflappable pace, and a knack for making clutch shots. His buzzer beater against Pitt was one of the highlights of the college season. He passes first, rarely turns the ball over, and shoots the ball well, but his cons are that he does not possess great foot speed and he is not a great athlete. Toronto would be ideal for him not only because Kyle Lowry is likely to depart in free agency but also because Ennis is born and raised in Brampton, Ontario, Canada. This would feel like a homecoming for Ennis and he would be a nice conduit for all the leapers like DeMar DeRozan and Jonas Valanciunas on Toronto’s team.
