#6- New Orleans Pelicans- Trey Burke, PG Michigan
DISCLAIMER: I am born and raised in Louisiana and an unabashed Hornets/Pelicans/Saints/LSU-except-for-that-dumb-stupid-fuckface-Les-Miles fan, so I will try to stay as impartial as Joey Crawford calling a Miami Heat game (by which case, I mean, not well). The newly named Pelicans won big last year by landing Anthony Davis in the lottery at #1 in 2012, but it already looks dreadful with their other lottery pick in Austin Rivers, who may have had the WORST SEASON EVER. Davis at least showed his muster as a rookie, being runner-up to Portland’s Damian Lillard for Rookie of the Year, but he was slotted often by Monty Williams (in my opinion, poorly) at power forward, with Robin Lopez at center. Lopez’s contract is not guaranteed, but I say Dell Demps will keep him and look to a guard to fix the two ongoing problems with Rivers’ awfulness and Eric Gordon being a whiny malcontent on a max contract (facepalm: engage). Some pundits have Alex Len, a center, here, but point guard is a greater need at this point. Greivis Vasquez improved and had a career year on a bad team, but Burke is a playmaker and he has better hops at his height than you think. The Pelicans need a guard that is not scared to take big shots, and Burke can do that while running a lot of pick and roll with his quickness. People knock Burke for his lack of size, but I don’t see a lot of Damian Lillard doubters these days, do I?
#7- Sacramento Kings- Cody Zeller, C Indiana
This one is the toughest call so far between Zeller, Alex Len, Oladipo, and even early #1 pick contender Shabazz Muhammad. The location stays the same (The Kings got voted to stay in Sacramento and prevented relocation to Seattle), but so does the total WTF-ness of this team that the dunderhead Maloofs left behind as a farewell “Fuck you” to the city. The one asset they have is a budding superstar big man in DeMarcus Cousins, maybe the most efficient scoring big man in the entire league, but he is a headcase and coach killer in every sense of the word. They tried to draft character and shooting with Jimmer Fredette and it didn’t pan out. They tried brute athleticism in Thomas Robinson and they gave up on him after 4 months in one of the dumbest trades imaginable. They are set, in some ways, at guard with Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Thornton, but that is a backcourt only a midget can love. That is why some people have the long Michael Carter Williams at this spot to take the point, but he cannot shoot and he turned the ball over a lot down the stretch. That leaves the frontcourt, and you have the quandary of taking a traditional center to give Cousins more real estate to probe the paint and get off those hook shots and pick-and-pop’s that he has almost mastered already. Zeller was looked at with Shabazz and Noel as top guys going into the college season, but Zeller had a slightly disappointing sophomore year and got dominated against the long wingspans of Syracuse in the tournament. The wilt was off the rose. Then came the combine, where Zeller’s measurements were phenomenal, and the rose was blooming again. Zeller is a fast runner so he can get set quicker in the post and let Cousins operate at his own speed, which he does seamlessly anyway when he is not getting ejected for doing things like this. Muhammad is a West Coast guy, so he might fit in well at the small forward spot in Sacramento, where they have had a need for a long time, but I bet the new ownership goes with a company man this time around in Zeller.
#8- Detroit Pistons- C.J. McCollum, PG Lehigh
You know how a movie from the Sundance Film Festival makes huge bank in the box office by some chance and the next year, everyone is sledding down to the next festival for the next My Big Fat Greek Wedding or Blair Witch Project? Well, this is the next trend in scouting: point guards from smaller schools. Why? Damian Lillard absolutely wowed the basketball world in Portland after playing no decent Division I competition at Weber State for his whole college career. It goes back to sabermetrics or any other “Moneyball” tactic you can think up: It’s not always about who you played and how well you did in big spots, it’s how well you did in your given environment and how well you can expand on it. Lillard’s emergence is now giving guards like McCollum, a legit good player who thrashed Duke in the first round of the 2012 tournament as a 15 seed, and Detroit’s Ray McCallum longer looks from scouts. McCollum primarily played two-guard at Lehigh and controlled the whole offense before breaking his foot in December (Weirdly, Lillard missed most of an entire season himself at Weber State due to a foot injury). Detroit just hired Maurice Cheeks as head coach and they have some decent pieces to build around. The Pistons have a frontcourt to die for in the future with the cerebral Greg Monroe and the Megatron of an athlete that is Andre Drummond. They finally dumped Tayshaun Prince but have yet to get rid of Charlie Villanueva’s albatross for a contract. They took Brandon Knight out of Kentucky in 2011, but he is more well-known now for clowning sessions on YouTube than for his level of play. McCollum could fit in at the point and move Knight over to being a set shooter, which he is best at.
#9- Minnesota Timberwolves- Alex Len, C Maryland
When you draw up a mock draft, there is always that Tetris moment where no matter what you do, you are probably going to be wrong, so you just go with the less wrong pick given your pool. That is how I feel here with the Wolves. They finally fired David Kahn, who I will always remember for making the always-cool Chris Webber want to punch him in the eye and for passing up Steph Curry to take two other guards back-to-back in Jonny Flynn and Ricky Rubio. Rubio is still getting over an ACL surgery that clipped an otherwise savvy debut, so I think the predictions for McCollum to go here are long shots. Kahn took so many swingmen high in the lottery over the past five years (Derrick Williams, Wesley Johnson, giving up their pick in exchange for Chase Budinger last year) that if new president Flip Saunders took Shabazz, Wolves fans will throw a mass hissy fit. Kevin Love’s contract is up for an option, and the campaign is already on to make Love as happy as possible to keep him in Minnesota. I think bringing in another big man, along with the really good Nikola Pekovic to shore up the rebounds while freeing up Love for more jump shots (which he can do better than most big men in the league), would be welcoming. Len is more athletic and bouncy on the court than Zeller, and with Pekovic being more stationary, Len on the putbacks and quick dump-offs could work. But this pick could go a lot of ways. I still think they have the right coach in Rick Adelman, but it wouldn’t shock me at all if they went with a bigger guard like Michael Carter-Williams.
#10- Portland Trail Blazers- Rudy Gobert, C France
And here we have the first international player, one pick after a Ukrainian who happened to play at Maryland. These guys are easy decisions sometimes because you can give yourself time to let them blossom into the players you think they could be at their best and the international pool to pick from every year is not as vast. But you also have to be careful with these picks, though. For every Dirk and Ginobili, there is a Darko Milicic or, dear Lord, a Nikolaz Tskitishvilli (That is the last time I am writing his name). The Blazers picked right with Rookie of the Year Damian Lillard at point guard, but they went on a long losing streak to close out a season that had been mediocre up to that point anyway. Meyers Leonard was their other lottery pick last year, but the jury is still out on him. Rudy Gobert is a Frenchman with a freakish 7’9″ wingspan. He is very explosive but very raw on offense and his defensive presence will have to come with time. He is like Javale McGee, only…French. Another foreigner who seemed to pique interests was forward Dario Saric, but he backed out of the draft at the last minute.
#11- Philadelphia 76ers- Steven Adams, C Pittsburgh
Well, if you lose Andrew Bynum (and I think they will in free agency), you desperately need a center to shore the middle where you expected Bynum to save the day for you and never did. It could be Olynyk, Mason Plumlee from Duke, or Adams, who turned out to be a legit seven-footer at the combine. I have a feeling that the upside of Adams will win out here. If he had come back as a sophomore, even in a good draft next year, he would have definitely gotten picked high. The Sixers are still looking for a coach at this moment after a frustrating Bynum-less year where Jrue Holiday had some highs (making the All-Star team) and lows. This team is on the verge of the playoffs still, but size is a major need.
#12- Oklahoma City Thunder- Kelly Olynyk, C Gonzaga
In some sort of trade complexity, this pick was originally Toronto’s and wound up belonging to Houston in a trade for Kyle Lowry. Houston then gave it to OKC in the James Harden deal, which is looking more and more like a mistake that could haunt a franchise that was on the cusp of a title. When all-everything guard Russell Westbrook went down in the playoffs, Memphis took advantage of OKC’s lack of depth in two spots: point guard and center. Ibaka is a great power forward, but he is not as assertive as you would like and he cannot play center. Kendrick Perkins is looking more and more like a potential casualty of the amnesty clause, an NBA team’s ultimate one-time weapon of getting rid of a pre-existing contract. Olynyk showed so much improvement from his high school days in Canada to his second year in Gonzaga that it was alarming. His rebounding is decent, but it is his footwork and his light touch around the basket that sets him apart from a lot of the centers. The Thunder would love to have a center who doesn’t have trouble finishing at the rim, where you get a lot of easy looks thanks to Westbrook and Durant’s speed spreading the floor. Michael Carter-Williams might go here, too, as a distribution point guard to back up Westbrook, but do the Thunder want to give up on Reggie Jackson already?
#13- Dallas Mavericks- Shabazz Muhammad, SF UCLA
This pick is reportedly in the cards for a trade because Mark Cuban is going to put his chips on the table this summer and next summer to reload the Mavericks for a title run before Dirk Nowitzki gets too old. Hence, the Dwight Howard sweepstakes goes through Dallas. Where this pick goes is anyone’s guess, even if Dallas keeps it. They couldn’t stand Darren Collison (whom Indiana smartly dumped after George Hill beat him out for the starting job) but they might go after a key guard in free agency like Chris Paul or Monta Ellis. I’ll go with talent and say that someone reaches to get Shabazz Muhammad, who was a one-and-done player out of UCLA. He was an impressive player, and he is very athletic, but his defense is spotty and his shooting was not there. Slashers in today’s small ball have to be able to make shots consistently, so Shabazz has to improve on that. Another slasher with good upside is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope out of Georgia.
#14- Utah Jazz- Michael Carter-Williams, PG Syracuse
The Jazz barely missed the playoffs under Ty Corbin and have a lot of unrestricted free agents in the summer, including their top big guys in Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap as well as two of their best guards in Mo Williams and Randy Foye. This pick will give a hint as to where Utah’s negotiations are headed. I think they will try their best to keep one of the big guys (while keeping two budding big men in Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter) and let the guards go, starting over with Carter Williams leading the point. It will definitely be a slower team with Carter-Williams runs the point, Alec Burks at shooting guard, Gordon Hayward at the SF spot and Kanter and Favors, who are not as mobile as Millsap and Jefferson were, but that’s the reality of free agency. Deron Williams, this guy is not. But his wingspan is terrifyingly good for a point guard who had high assist numbers and can take contact (He is also in his early 20’s already). He showed improvement in his shot during the tournament, but couldn’t keep the momentum all year long, settling on reckless drives to the basket to draw fouls. Utah might be able to use that to their advantage after three seasons of guards who couldn’t get to the free-throw line. It’s not back to the drawing board yet for the Jazz, but they have to get this pick right.
Stay tuned for Part Two of Andrew’s NBA Draft preview later this week!
